Florida Keys Marine Thermal Stress & Ecosystem Research
Comprehensive research workspace integrating multidecadal NOAA Coral Reef Watch Level-4 satellite radiometry, continuous NOAA CO-OPS in-situ coastal thermistors, and NOAA AOML biological field surveys across the Florida Keys archipelago.
Peak 2026 DHW
18.94 °C-weeks
Alert Level 2 Exceeded
Max Summer SST
32.26 °C
Recorded August 22, 2026
Connected Modalities
3 Distinct
Satellite · Thermistor · Diver
Governance Status
R6 Certified
Zero Fabricated Inferences
Geographic Spatial Bounds & Monitored Stations
Florida Keys Regional Polygon
Encompasses Key Largo, Middle Keys (Marathon / Vaca Key), Lower Keys (Key West / Big Pine), and the Marquesas/Tortugas channels.
Satellite Grid Composite
CRW Regional Virtual Station
5-km grid average (Surface Skin)
Coastal In-Situ Sensor
Key West Harbor (8724580)
0.85m depth MLLW (240 daily samples)
Shallow Bay Sensor
Vaca Key / Florida Bay (8723970)
1.03m depth MLLW (240 daily samples)
Inshore Patch Reef
Cheeca Rocks (NOAA AOML)
3–6m depth (Diver visual & photo surveys)
Thermal Stress & In-Situ Temperature Time Series
Continuous satellite L4 SST and independent coastal thermistor observations (June 1 – August 31, 2026)
Hover across the chart to inspect synchronized daily multi-source observations.
Multi-Source Observational Modality & Comparison Contract Suite
Compare distinct observational modalities with formal 18-dimension Comparison Contracts, explicit physical non-equivalence callouts, and bounded inference ceilings.
NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW v3.1)
NOAA NESDIS STAR
Key West Harbor (KYWF1)
NOAA NOS CO-OPS
Vaca Key / Florida Bay (VCAF1)
NOAA NOS CO-OPS
Cheeca Rocks Patch Reef Survey
NOAA OAR AOML Coral Program
Comparing: NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW v3.1) vs. Key West Harbor (KYWF1)
Scientific Compatibility Evaluation:
These series overlap in time and region but measure physically distinct sensing domains (Surface Skin (~10–20 µm) / Ocean Surface Skin (Thermal-Infrared Radiometry) vs. 0.85 m below MLLW datum / Subsurface Coastal Harbor Water Column) and cannot be interpreted as direct temperature replication.
- •Contextual comparison of regional thermal trend against localized coastal thermistor readings.
- •Equating regional Level-4 satellite skin radiometry with localized benthic or shallow harbor temperature as a persistent offset.
- •Extrapolating shallow harbor or bay thermistor readings to distant offshore outer reef tracts without demographic/in-situ verification.
- •Declaring independent scientific replication based on sources within the same institutional family.
Biological Observations & Field Surveys
Cheeca Rocks Coral Bleaching Onset (July 6, 2026)
Scientific divers from the NOAA AOML Coral Program documented the first field signs of coral bleaching (pallor and partial bleaching on massive corals such as Porites astreoides and Orbicella faveolata) at the Cheeca Rocks inshore patch reef.
- Blocked Overclaim H3: Documented onset at Cheeca Rocks does not establish a quantitative bleaching percentage across all Florida Keys reefs.
- Blocked Overclaim H4: Initial bleaching signs do not establish coral mortality without repeated post-stress survival surveys.
- Blocked Overclaim H5: Satellite thermal metrics alone cannot exclude co-factors (salinity, light intensity, local pathogens).
Synchronized Event Timeline (June 1 – August 31, 2026)
Click any milestone event to inspect raw source metadata, processing tiers, and limitation disclosures.
CRW Bleaching Watch Triggered (SST 30.06°C)
NOAA Coral Reef Watch Florida Keys Regional Virtual Station records positive thermal anomaly (SST@90th_HS 30.06°C, HotSpot 0.34°C), triggering initial Bleaching Watch (BAA=1).
CRW Bleaching Warning (HotSpot 1.12°C, DHW Accumulation Starts)
HotSpot crosses 1.0°C threshold (HotSpot = 1.12°C, SST = 30.87°C), initiating Degree Heating Week heat accumulation (DHW = 0.16 °C-weeks, BAA = 2 / Warning).
Source Context: Early July Shallow Harbor Peak at Key West (33.20°C)
NOAA CO-OPS Station 8724580 (Key West Harbor) recorded early July afternoon temperature peaks reaching 33.20°C. This is a source-derived context value and distinct from the frozen July 19 C2 diurnal claim anchor.
CRW Bleaching Alert Level 1 Threshold Exceeded (DHW 4.28 °C-weeks)
Degree Heating Weeks cross 4.0 °C-weeks (DHW = 4.28 °C-weeks, HotSpot = 2.17°C, SST = 31.94°C), elevating the Florida Keys regional status to Bleaching Alert Level 1.
C4 Claim Anchor: NOAA AOML Coral Bleaching Field Signs at Cheeca Rocks
NOAA AOML documented observed field signs of coral bleaching at Cheeca Rocks in early July 2026, photographed July 6, 2026, classified as Institutional Field Reporting.
Source Context: Early July Shallow Bay Peak at Vaca Key (33.90°C)
NOAA CO-OPS Station 8723970 (Vaca Key / Florida Bay) recorded early July afternoon shallow bay thermal peaks reaching 33.90°C (and max 34.30°C). This is a source-derived context value and distinct from the frozen July 19 C3 diurnal claim anchor.
C1 Claim Anchor: NOAA CRW Regional Virtual Station Level 2 Alert
On July 19, 2026, NOAA Coral Reef Watch Florida Keys Regional Virtual Station recorded Degree Heating Weeks of 8.0757 °C-weeks (BAA 4 / Bleaching Alert Level 2) with SST@90th_HS of 31.18 °C.
C2 Claim Anchor: Key West Harbor (KYWF1) Continuous Water Temperature
On July 19, 2026, NOAA NOS CO-OPS Station 8724580 (KYWF1, Key West Harbor) recorded continuous water temperatures: MEAN = 32.13 °C, MIN = 31.90 °C, MAX = 32.50 °C, DEPTH = 0.85 m below MLLW across 240 six-minute samples.
C3 Claim Anchor: Vaca Key / Florida Bay (VCAF1) Continuous Water Temperature
On July 19, 2026, NOAA NOS CO-OPS Station 8723970 (VCAF1, Vaca Key / Florida Bay) recorded continuous water temperatures: MEAN = 32.02 °C, MIN = 31.30 °C, MAX = 32.80 °C, DEPTH = 1.03 m below MLLW across 240 six-minute samples.
CRW DHW Exceeds 10.79 °C-weeks (Prolonged Alert Level 2 Accumulation)
NOAA CRW Florida Keys Degree Heating Weeks accumulate to 10.79 °C-weeks with SST@90th_HS at 31.34°C, sustaining Alert Level 2 for the 14th consecutive day.
Peak Summer 2026 Thermal Stress: DHW 16.06 °C-weeks (SST 32.26°C)
NOAA CRW Florida Keys Degree Heating Weeks cross 16.06 °C-weeks as SST@90th_HS reaches 32.26°C (HotSpot = 2.50°C), marking severe prolonged thermal accumulation.
Summer 2026 Period Close: DHW Reaches 18.94 °C-weeks
End of the June 1 – August 31, 2026 summer research evaluation window. DHW closes at 18.94 °C-weeks with SST@90th_HS at 31.29°C.
C1 Claim Anchor: NOAA CRW Regional Virtual Station Level 2 Alert
Florida Keys Regional Virtual Station
24.7500°N, -81.6250°W
Provenance Model:
CLAIM_ANCHOREpistemic Tier:
MACHINE_COMPUTEDObserved Metric Vector
84151CA8EB0F40ED500AD3F5A6F6155DBB71D8D4D473A22D77FCF3943874BF93
- Regional 5-km composite satellite skin temperature; does not resolve localized benthic reef thermistors (Blocked Overclaim H1).
- Thermal metrics alone do not exclude unmeasured co-factors such as salinity, UV irradiance, or pathogens (Blocked Overclaim H5).
Florida Keys 2026 Coral Thermal Stress & Bleaching Dossier
Auditable flagship product validation dossier certified under the frozen OceanSig R6 Scientific Kernel.
Data Downloads & Reproducible Query Bundle
Export verified Florida Keys research data in standard scientific formats with an embedded cryptographic query manifest: