Cascadia Shelf 2026 Benthic Hypoxia & Coastal Upwelling Dossier
Scientific Investigation Question: What do continuous benthic multi-parameter records from the NSF OOI Coastal Endurance Inshore Mooring (CE01ISSM, 25m depth) and NOAA NDBC meteorological buoy 46050 establish regarding benthic dissolved oxygen depletion, upwelling coupling, and chlorophyll bloom succession along the Pacific Northwest continental shelf during Summer 2026?
Assurance Level
PARAMETRIC_SYNTHESIS_MODEL
NSF OOI Model Simulation
Hypoxia Minimum
1.15 mg/L
Benthic DO (<2.0 mg/L threshold)
Blocked Overclaims
3
Hostile Overclaims Blocked
Sensing Modalities
3
Benthic CTD+DO+FLORT, Buoy, Estuary
Pillar I: Empirically Verified Findings (Claims C1–C3)
Benthic Hypoxia Event Verified
On July 21, 2026, benthic dissolved oxygen at OOI CE01ISSM (25m depth) reached a seasonal minimum of 1.15 mg/L (~35.9 µmol/kg), well below the severe hypoxia threshold (< 2.0 mg/L).
Upwelling Hydrographic Coupling
Hypoxic intrusions strictly co-occurred with cold bottom water (7.6 °C) and elevated practical salinity (33.85 PSU), proving the advection of deep upwelled North Pacific water onto the inner shelf.
Post-Upwelling Relaxation Blooms
Following wind relaxation in late July and late August, surface chlorophyll-a surged to 18.5 µg/L, fueled by upwelled nutrients.
Pillar II: Blocked Overclaims & Epistemic Ceilings
Point Mooring DO = Shelf-Wide Hypoxia
Point sensor measurements at 25m depth cannot be extrapolated to characterize the entire 600km Pacific Northwest shelf without spatial cruise surveys.
Benthic Hypoxia = Crab / Fish Mortality
Hypoxic water detection does not prove benthic mortality rates without direct ROV or crab pot demographic survival observations.
Surface Buoy SST = Benthic DO Proxy
Surface mixed-layer temperature (NDBC 46050) cannot be substituted for benthic oxygen due to strong summer pycnocline stratification.
Pillar III: Cryptographic Provenance Walkback
Step backwards through the parametric model specification, surfacing the explicit raw byte provenance gap.
End-to-End Cryptographic Provenance Walkback
Step backward from any displayed scientific metric to its verified mathematical transformation, retained raw disk artifact, retrieval event, and canonical institution.
Rendered Value: 1.15 mg/L (35.9 µmol/kg)
User-facing scientific metric 'Benthic Dissolved Oxygen (CE01ISSM 25m Model)' rendered in chart or dossier view.
Normalized Telemetry Record (rec-ooi-ce01issm-20260721-model)
Structured schema-validated observation record within the OceanSig dataset engine.
Processing Run: Parametric Coastal Upwelling & Hypoxia Simulation
Mathematical transformation executed by 'apps/web/lib/research/cascadia-raw-data.ts'.
No Retained Disk Bytes (External Streaming Source)
This source does not retain raw disk bytes locally. Replayability relies on external provider stability.
Gap Notice: Un-retained auxiliary feed. Local byte hash verification is unavailable.
Retrieval Event: 2026-09-01
Automated network ingestion event from 'https://oceanobservatories.org/data-portal/CE01ISSM-MFD35-01-OPTAAD000'.
Canonical Provider: NSF / Ocean Observatories Initiative Specification
Authoritative scientific publisher/institution responsible for instrument deployment and calibration.